您的当前位置:首页 > 白银TD > Bitfinex report: Market volatility will intensify, Bitcoin is expected to hit new highs after US election 正文
时间:2025-05-21 08:08:22 来源:网络整理 编辑:白银TD
Bitfinex,thecryptocurrencyexchange,saidinareportreleasedonMondaythattheuncertaintyoftheUSelection,th
Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.
Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.
On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.
Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.
The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility
Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.
The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.
The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666
RD InnoTech攜手HashKey Exchange推動未來穩定幣HKDR發行,加速跨境支付佈局2025-05-21 19:08
2015年买什么股票好-2015年买什么股票好一点2025-05-21 19:05
比特币未来的价格2025-05-21 18:57
武夷山是什么气候2025-05-21 18:54
使用员工车辆的产生的费用怎么入账2025-05-21 18:23
莱特币行情qq2025-05-21 18:06
gxs是什么币种2025-05-21 17:58
比特比今日价格2025-05-21 17:50
金融危机预言家警告:美国或于年底前陷入衰退,美元跌势将持续2025-05-21 17:32
Metrics Ventures市场观察:加密资产与人民币资产的未来展望2025-05-21 17:18
Tether监管FUD再起风浪,市场能否乘风破浪?2025-05-21 19:35
行情中心以太坊2025-05-21 19:35
数字货币十大交易平台_可用的前十比特币平台榜单2025-05-21 19:16
云币行情怎么看-云币现在的价格是多少2025-05-21 19:14
玖富万卡如何确定放款是否成功了呢?2025-05-21 19:06
挖矿软件以太坊-挖矿软件 以太坊2025-05-21 18:38
全球十大区块链交易所2025-05-21 18:23
交易所ft2025-05-21 17:53
玖富万卡放款失败了,该怎么办呢?2025-05-21 17:26
正常薪金和全年一次性薪金公司报税有何影响2025-05-21 17:22